As artificial intelligence gains traction as a key strategic imperative for enterprises, it has also assumed another, sinister significance for many individuals—as a job killer, or even as the technology that will eventually lead to the demise of humankind. Yet it also contains the promise of a whole new phase of potential for us as a species.

“With the right combination of capabilities and resources coupled alongside the right mind-set, miracles will happen,” said Kearney partner Thomas Luk at the firm’s Digital Business Forum, “Creating the intelligent organization: unlocking the potential of AI.”

Perhaps, given the proliferation of dark warnings littering the media, it’s not surprising that an Internet search starting “Will artificial intelligence” brings up “take away jobs,” “lead to unemployment,” and “replace humans” as the top three suggested ways to complete the search query.

“AI is going to be a game-changer for many organizations, and not just in the way that they run their business processes or sell their products and services,” says Ola Engebretsen, a partner in Kearney’s Digital Transformation Practice. “It is going to create a whole new working landscape; some jobs, companies, and industries will decline, others will grow, and many more will change. Working culture will also be completely transformed.”

This adds another layer of complexity for executives planning to bring AI into their business. What is likely to be its true impact on their employees and the company as a whole? And how can they maintain a positive workplace culture while AI continues to rip up the rulebook?

With AI still in its relative infancy, opinions remain deeply divided over its eventual impact on the world and what the consequences will be for humankind. That it will be a transformational force is not in doubt, and this will become evident most strongly to many people at their place of work. Our experts take a look at three impacts organizations should consider and build into their AI implementation plans.

One key source of contention among AI experts is what it will mean for the human workforce and the nature of work itself. There are various schools of thought, ranging from the apocalyptic (the robots will take all of our jobs) to the reverential (humans will be freed up to realize their higher potential as boring, mundane, and dangerous tasks become the preserve of the machines).

The truth will most likely fall somewhere in between. “The job market will definitely change, and we are seeing signs of this already,” says Michael Roemer, Kearney’s EMEA Digital Lead. “The emergence of driverless vehicles will decrease demand for certain driving roles for example. But much of AI’s promise will be realized through augmenting human effort and making many jobs easier. What we will see a lot of is a reconfiguration of roles as tasks become either displaced or augmented by the technology.”

The analyst firm Gartner has predicted that by 2020, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates, with the greatest demand in healthcare, the public sector, and education. By 2022, it claims that one in five workers will use AI when carrying out non-routine tasks, such as running a status report or sorting their incoming messages.

One other possibility that executives would be wise to consider is the likely impact of AI on the lifeblood of their companies: their consumer base. Just as AI will impact their own employees, it will just as easily cut a swathe through the jobs of the people who use their products and services. Organizations would do well to devise a mitigation plan for a worst-case scenario, in which new jobs cannot be generated quickly or abundantly enough to compensate for automation-related losses.

As business processes change and job roles adjust to accommodate new ways of working with AI, it is entirely probable that certain departments within organizations will become fully automated. This is already happening in areas such as IT operations—what is referred to as “lights out” ops, as without any human presence there is no need to turn the lights on.

The key questions for executives considering the future of their business will be which functions and capabilities give them strategic differentiation in the market, and which can be automated or augmented in a way that improves performance and quality and drives down cost. Humans will still have important roles to play in delivering these capabilities, but not necessarily the same ones that they had before the advent of AI.

The real game-changer will come about when businesses that are able to deliver their core proposition via AI become fully automated and start to put their competitors who are still staffed by humans at a disadvantage. At this point, entire industries will be disrupted and it is really anyone’s guess how that will play out for individual companies or their employees.

What we do know now is that, while AI is still very much an emerging technology, it is already possible to distinguish who has the edge—the companies that are putting data at the heart of their business models.

“The inequality in AI today comes not so much from a technology or a capacity standpoint,” says Kearney partner Eric Gervet. “It comes from a data standpoint. Some retailers know more about their consumers than others for example. And it’s chiefly about the data that they have access to, not the data that they own.”

One thing that AI experts remain unified on is that, as the advent of automation brings sweeping changes to business models and processes, these will by default be felt in the workplace.

As we have already explored, an Internet search gives a quick, if not scientific, sense of the AI questions that are at the front of people’s minds. And they are primarily about jobs and unemployment.

“In reality, very few occupations will be fully automated in their entirety in the near or medium term and so the impact that we will see on the workforce is not increased redundancies, but a repositioning toward more value-added work,” says Ramyani Basu, a partner at Kearney. “Careers in the near term will need to be built around learning and not just existing skills.”

Therefore, a key task for leaders will be introducing any AI plans to their existing workforce, who may well see it as a threat to their livelihoods. “Business leaders should […] help employees understand the multiple ways in which AI will augment their roles and make many jobs easier to carry out,” said Arjun Sethi, Global Lead at Kearney’s Digital Transformation Practice, at this year’s World Economic Forum.

For those who may dread this as a potential uphill battle, one Oracle study found that 93 percent of US HR leaders and employees would be willing to take instruction from a robot or AI at work—although they also believe that organizations are not yet doing enough to prepare their employees for these changes.

Sethi also emphasized the importance of leaders demonstrating their ongoing investment in the human workforce to maintain employee engagement. For example, retraining and upskilling programs that will help workers as new technologies are deployed should be widely available and extensively communicated as part of a carefully managed change approach.

Finally, the new working landscape will be one in which extremely high levels of trust, openness, and collaboration are crucial if the human–machine partnership is to be a successful one. Leaders will have to be ready for their own actions and performance to be as transparent as those of anyone else across the firm, and this change could prove to be the most challenging for some.

As organizations approach this era of unknowns, it is fundamental that they not only understand the potential consequences of adopting AI, but help to shape them. Investing in the technology cannot be done in isolation. Instead, firms will need to craft robust strategies that take account of the entire business ecosystem if they are to benefit in the long run.

Furthermore, the ripple effect of these changes will start to alter the very parameters inside which our societies operate. From infrastructure and regulation to education and social welfare, it seems unlikely that many aspects of our existence will remain impervious to AI’s effects.

By working to carve out a new landscape in which man and machine can coexist, we face the exhilarating prospect of a whole new phase in the development of mankind. “With the right combination of capabilities and resources coupled alongside the right mind-set, miracles will happen,” says Luk.

Source: KEARNEY https://www.kearney.com/digital/article/?/a/ai-and-its-impact-on-the-workforce. 

By Jonathan Cristiani, Black & Veatch

Many climate activists and clean energy enthusiasts warn against the continued use of, and investment in, natural gas infrastructure, insisting it isn’t a substitute for clean energy. They are correct. Ultimately, the U.S. should not plan to maintain its current fossil-based natural gas systems indefinitely. However, at this point in the sustainable energy revolution, it would likely be imprudent to develop and build new natural gas infrastructure. At the same time, the world isn’t ready, able or – quite frankly –willing to make an immediate switch to 100% clean energy. Given current investment and technological limitations, the transition to all renewable energy will need to be gradual and multi-phased. 

Although fossil-based natural gas tends not to be low enough in carbon intensity to remain a primary energy source in our decarbonized future, the U.S. is not ready to abandon it entirely. And we aren’t the only ones – many other countries will require natural gas to serve as a so-called “bridge” fuel while they continue to transition to zero- and low-carbon energy sources.

(Plan to attend “Decarbonization Goals: How Do We Get There?” live in Dallas on January 26 as part of PowerGen International.)

With this in mind, the energy industry should take a hard look at natural gas to consider how it might use existing infrastructure to benefit ratepayers across the globe and ensure the fuel doesn’t inhibit decarbonization initiatives.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) derived from biogas, landfill gas, woody biomass and waste sources of carbon dioxide could provide a near-term solution while the world seeks to minimize or eliminate more carbon-intense energy sources such as coal and oil. 

In diverting greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the atmosphere, RNG shows promise in lowering the carbon intensity of the overall natural gas supply blend by avoiding many of the environmental impacts associated with fossil-based natural gas production. If produced, distributed, and used responsibly, RNG can play a critical role in the net-zero carbon economy. 

What Is Renewable Natural Gas?

RNG, also known as biomethane, is pipeline-quality natural gas that comes from renewable sources rather than from fossil-based sources. RNG is often produced from biogas, meaning it is derived from the anaerobic digestion of wastes from industrial processes such as livestock farming and wastewater treatment. RNG can also be produced via methanation, in which either synthesis gas from biomass gasification or carbon dioxide emissions from a variety of sources are converted into methane in combination with green hydrogen. 

As a replacement for fossil-based natural gas, RNG is most promising because it diverts and repurposes the GHGs that would otherwise be emitted under normal practices, rather than relying on carbon-intense extraction methods such as hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking. For example, methane emissions from uncovered livestock manure lagoons can be anaerobically digested to produce biogas for RNG production rather than being directly emitted to the atmosphere.

RNG is also appealing for the ease with which it can be used as a fuel for power generation or applications that cannot be easily electrified, as RNG is directly interchangeable with fossil-based natural gas, for which extensive infrastructure already exists. 

The Need for Bridge Fuels

While the necessity for a clean energy economy is clear, it is unreasonable to expect all countries to transition overnight. Many countries need natural gas to serve as a bridge fuel over the next couple of decades as they retire more carbon-intensive assets but have yet to fully build out renewables, hydrogen and other clean energy sources. Transitioning to clean energy too quickly without proper consideration of all variables could ultimately risk a global energy crisis. 

Currently, investment in clean energy resources is estimated to be at about half the level needed to meet a variety of net-zero carbon targets with a 2050 deadline. As these investments accelerate and clean energy resources proliferate, fossil fuels will continue to be needed as supplements to avoid supply chain disruptions. 

Fully relying on intermittent renewable energy resources such as wind and solar without considering the complementary nature of natural gas energy resources (and vice versa) could result in mismatches in supply and demand. 

RNG is one alternative that can help alleviate these disparities by providing a middle-ground option that lowers the carbon intensity of current power generation systems while other low-carbon resources are developed and implemented. Since the infrastructure for natural gas already exists, the potential for RNG as a cleaner alternative to fossil-based natural gas is immediate, offering benefits without a significant transition period or development of new infrastructure.  

Additionally, numerous industry sectors cannot fully rely on renewable energy or electrification to achieve their decarbonization objectives; at least not with the technologies currently available. These include food and beverage production, aviation, heavy-duty transportation, mining and steel, cement and chemical production. All these present ideal opportunities for the use of RNG.

Although not a panacea, RNG can be paired with other technologies to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, thereby providing decarbonization for hard-to-abate sectors while maintaining their ability to continue operating with current practices and equipment. Some types of RNG, like that produced from livestock manure, even offer potential for net-negative carbon emissions. 

Responsible RNG Use

If RNG is to establish a meaningful position in a net-zero carbon economy, it must be sourced and used responsibly. One way to do this is to pair its use with carbon capture technologies. Although RNG still emits GHGs when burned as a fuel, it can be paired with carbon capture, utilization and storage technology to ensure that emitted carbon is sequestered or reused. There are a variety of applications for captured carbon, including conversion into a fuel source via methanation or use in building materials.

Biogas from landfills, wastewater treatment, food waste and livestock manure also offers a great feedstock for RNG production. As a GHG, methane is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide; thus, producing RNG from these resources can result in net-negative GHG emissions overall in some cases, as the GHGs that would have been released into the environment through the original process are higher than those released when the resulting RNG is burned. 

Looking Forward

Although fossil fuel use will eventually need to be phased out, the shift away from fossil fuels will take time as new infrastructure and technologies are developed that scale and support or store energy from low-carbon resources such as biomass, renewables, and hydrogen. During this developmental period for green energy, it is imperative that RNG is considered alongside other alternatives. 

RNG offers the ability to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors, giving economies time to adjust to changing energy production landscapes, diverting emissions from industries such as wastewater treatment and agriculture, and avoiding environmental impacts from fossil fuel extraction, all while utilizing existing infrastructure for transport and utilization.

As the world makes strides toward a net-zero carbon future, RNG shows significant promise as a bridge to ease the journey. 

Jonathan Cristiani is a Black & Veatch project manager and advanced power fuels engineer who is primarily focused on bioenergy and hydrogen consulting services, including technology evaluations, resource assessments, feasibility studies, proforma economic analyses, conceptual engineering and engineering/project management assistance. Cristiani has significant experience with the conversion of biogenic feedstocks to electric power, process heat, and solid, liquid or gaseous biofuels. His portfolio also includes the production of hydrogen for industrial, energy storage and transportation fuel applications. Over his career, Cristiani has worked in research and development with a variety of power and energy technologies.